THE END OF THE CENTURY, PROPHECIES AND SECTS: SOME PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS

By: Psychologist Jorge Palacio. Candidate of a degree in psychopsiology of behavior

 

The end of the century is a special moment. It brings a wave of prophecies about the ending of the world that are generally stated by apocalyptic or messianic sects ( i.e. those that predict the end of the world or the coming of a Messiah), without leaving aside those more dangerous groups that do not feel satisfied with just predicting and waiting, but actually put it into practice; namely, the group of the Solar Temple in France.

 

It is possible to differentiate a special dynamics between the prophecies and the personal beliefs of those people who are members of those sects. How has Psychology studied these aspects?

 

The Sects:

 

Firstly, it is necessary to define what we understand as a sect: In a study presented at the French National Assembly on Sects in France (1) it became so difficult to find a conceptual definition of the term that it was decided to use some of the indicators followed by the French Secret Service in order to define it :

 

mental instability, exaggerated financial demands, induced break from original environment, harm to physical integrity, children involvement, a more or less anti-social discourse, disturbance to public order, several judicial problems of the group, possible use of non-traditional economic circuits, attempts to infiltrate public entities.

 

In itself, the connotation of the word sect is depreciatory, and it is said that the leaders of these groups use either a philosophical, religious or therapeutic cover in order to disguise the objectives of power, control of exploitation of the adepts. This distinction is more difficult to make than it is believed when the features of the sect are compared with some very widely spread business and pyramidal sales strategies. In the former ones the employee is absorbed by the life style of the company and by the spirit of the team, a fact that implies a compromise that goes further than expected. In the latter, each meeting of product promotion and prize awarding due to amount of sales is more like a cult to money won only by those who want and deserve it.

 

Taking into account the previously mentioned features, the sectarian groups were classified according to the doctrine practiced in:

 

New Age Groups ( new spiritualism )

 

Alternative Groups (i.e. The Humanistic Movement )

 

Evangelic or Pseudocatholic Groups that revolve around a person with a Guru attitude.

 

Apocalyptic Groups ( predict an up-coming world disaster )

 

New-Pagan Movements (follow other gods different from the One in the Bible ).

 

Satanic Movements

 

Healing Movements

 

Oriental Movements

 

Occultist Movements

 

Psychoanalytic Movements ( develop various parapsychological strategies which pretend to heal the subconscious )

 

Ufologic Movements ( practices to start contact with extraterrestrial beings )

 

Syncretic Movements ( mixture of approaches )

 

From these groups, those that interest us the most are those that develop an apocalyptic vision of the end of the world. It is among these groups that we see the self-named Messiah who predicts the place and date of the fateful event. The Messiah can also be a prophet or the chosen one who interprets God’s or either one or several extraterrestrial creatures’ signals or signs from the other life. What becomes interesting is to observe and explain how one or several people believe in these predictions and what happens once the fateful day arrives and nothing actually happens.

 

The Adepts:

 

Sects exist and will exist as long as man has needs that cannot be fulfilled otherwise. The appearance of new spiritual and existential needs are closely linked to this. For example, in Third World countries we have social and economic factors that make people take refuge in beliefs which promise them both future well-being and a reward for their present sufferings and lacks.

 

At a higher social level, or in developed countries, we find criticism to productivity, to materialism, and to the scientific approach, the falling of political ideas, the low popularity of the traditional religious groups, that is, a generalized criticism or the demand for answers that the traditional ideas are not able to respond. It is then that the new groups, which threaten or rock the prestablished order, do respond by proposing global explanations of man and new religions.

 

It seems that there is a progressively more stressed coming back to the spirit and more precisely to a personalized religion ( 2 ), to an internal search where there is no place for external religions. For some people, the joining of a sect also implies a wish for a greater family happiness, for a better and more sensible life; despite the appearance of a happy family life, and this includes then everybody, which means that from the least instructed to the wisest, from the wealthiest to the poorest, we can all belong or have belonged to a sect, maybe without being aware of it.

 

In order not to take longer in this discussion, let’s analyze how adepts react before a prophecy and what happens if it is never fulfilled.

 

Prophesies

 

Let’s suppose that a person strongly believes in something and that also s/he has committed himself / herself and has undertaken irreversible actions in the name of his / her beliefs. After some time, these beliefs are proved to be wrong beyond doubt. What will happen to this person? In order to answer, let’s examine a real life example taken from Festinger and Col (1993).

 

 

Montanism: Montanus was a Christian who lived in the second century. At that time he was firmly convinced that Jesus Second Coming was near and that it would take place in Pepusa ( near the present Angora) where all the true disciples should quickly meet. He assured he had had a private revelation and his eloquence and charisma were such that he convinced a great number of disciples to go with him to the appointed place. They were so many that a new village was formed in order to host them all. When the expected moment arrived and seeing that nothing happened, the movement instead of disappearing was injected with new life, with new force and shape. It became an elitist christianism which accepted the Holy Spirit as their only controlling authority .

 

This short and old example follows the " laws " of a social group of this nature. Let’s see what Festinger says (3). There are five conditions that we can expect so that a group takes on new life in spite of the unfulfillment of the prophecy:

 

It is necessary for the Messiah or Prophet to express a very deep conviction so that this implies a real commitment. This Messiah or Prophet should have committed him/herself to such a point that it becomes impossible for him/her to take a step back or refuse to continue. The actions should be accurate enough and direct reference should be made to real events that cannot be challenged. Finally, it is compulsory that the facts contradict him/her completely, and that the group should realize that what the Messiah had predicted never occurred.

 

The first two statements show us a strong idelological commitment while the next two indicate that the individual should declare him/herself defeated and yield to the weight of the facts and as a result renounce to his prophecies and beliefs. The example given previously proves that things do not happen as expected, but on the contrary all the movement seems to regain force. We still need to look at the following postulate: It is necessary for the Messiah to have a strong social support, this being the actual key, since an isolated believer cannot go against the force of reason while if s/he finds the support of a group of followers which at the same time support each other it is possible then to expect that the belief can be maintained and even increased. There is still another factor to take into account, this is called Cognitive Dissonance.

 

Two elements ( opinions, beliefs, knowledge of the environment, one’s own actions or feelings ) are dissonant if they contradict each other, if they disagree. In this way we find a dissonant phenomenon in the belief of the ending of the world and its non-occurrence. In this precise moment the Messiah finds him/herself in dissonance since his/her internal belief disagrees or contradicts the facts of the world.

 

The theory states that the subject will try to diminish or eliminate this dissonance to turn it into consonance by three means:

 

The person can try to modify one or several beliefs, opinions or behaviors involved in the dissonance. S/he can attempt to assert the existing consonant information in order to reduce the global dissonance and also, s/he can try to forget or to minimize the dissonant cognitive elements.

 

To make his/her effort succeed, the individual must receive the support of either a social or physical mean, if this misses, all effort to reduce the dissonance will fail.

 

Concluding we can say that depending on the level of belief reached, the person that really believes in something never doubts, despite proving himself wrong he will always see confirmations to his belief. All these are his/her psychological defenses to protect his belief and psychological stability.

 

 

Bibliography

 

(1 ) Assemblée Nationale ( 1995 ). Les Sectes en France. Commission d’enquete Gest. A. Guyard, J.

 

(3)Festinger, L., Riecken, H. w., Schachter, S. ( 1993). L’échec d’une prophétie. Psychologie Sociale d’une groupe de fideles qui prédisaient la fin du monde. PUF. Paris. Version original en anglais ( 1956).