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Entradas con etiqueta extreme events .


Juan C. Ortiz, Bladimir Salcedo and Luis Otero

Journal of Coastal Engeneering, Sep (2012)

On March 7, 2009, a 200-meter section of the Puerto Colombia Pier collapsed during the passage of a cold front through the Atlántico Department of Colombia on the Caribbean coast. In the present study, the most important meteo-marine event of the last ten years in the Colombian Caribbean area was reconstructed using SWAN software and the Wavewatch III (WW3) global wave model, which uses wind fields as input. The modeling involved a nested grid approach for the generation and propagation of waves in a particular sector of the central Caribbean coast of Colombia. To validate the numerical model, the time series of the event generated using modeling data was compared with the recorded wave data of buoy 42058, located in the Caribbean Sea and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and buoy 41194, located near the mouth of the Magdalena River and operated by the General Maritime Directorate (DIMAR). The simulation results were incorporated into the CMS-WAVE and CMS-FLOW models for the reconstruction of the cold-front event.

The modeling results were also compared to previously reported data for the waves generated by the hurricanes Joan (1988) and Lenny (1999). The results revealed that the analyzed study area was more heavily impacted by the ocean conditions produced by the 2009 cold front event than those produced by the hurricanes that have affected the Colombian Caribbean coast. The findings also indicate that the proposed methodology utilizing several wave propagation models produces results that adequately characterize the processes occurring in deep, intermediate and shallow waters.

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Impact of the 2010-2011 La Niña phenomenon in Colombia, South America: The human toll of an extreme weather event

N. Hoyos, J. Escobar, J.C. Restrepo, M. Arango and Juan C. Ortiz

Applied Geography, Jan (2013)

The 2010e2011 La Niña (positive phase of El Niño) phenomenon affected four million Colombians, 9% (aprox) of the total population, and caused economic losses of approximately US $7.8 billion, related to destruction of infrastructure, flooding of agricultural lands and payment of government subsidies. We analyzed the spatial patterns of effects on the population, measured as the number of affected persons in each municipality normalized to the total municipal population for 2011, using global (Moran’s I index) and local (LISA) spatial autocorrelation indicators, and multiple regression analyses (OLS and ML spatial error model). The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed two regional clusters or “hotspots” with high autocorrelation values, in the lower Magdalena River Valley (Caribbean plains) and lower Atrato Valley (Pacific lowlands). The regression analyses emphasized the importance of the spatial component as well as the variables related to hazard exposure and social vulnerability. Municipalities in “hotspots” show: (1) a high degree of flooding, as they are located on the Magdalena and Atrato River floodplains, and (2) high social vulnerability, suggested by low values of the ICV (national living conditions index).

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Cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea and their relationship to extreme wave events

Juan C. Ortiz, Luis Otero, Juan C. Restrepo, Julie Ruiz and Marta Cadena.

Natural Hazards and Earth System, Nov (2013)

Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM), based on its initials in Spanish) and Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish) during the last 16 years. The highest number of cold fronts was observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was observed and the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total), moreover, an annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts, in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values ​​of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 years were identified.

Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that, there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 years, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between March 5th and 10th, 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the purpose of informing the design of structures in this region of ​​the Caribbean.

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